The money line is where you will find the most value when betting NHL underdogs. The money line simply means you are betting on a team to win the game outright, no point spreads involved. When betting on underdogs, you don’t need them to dominate the game – you just need them to win.
Favorites in the NHL often have money lines of -200 or higher. This means you need to risk $200 to win $100. Meanwhile, the underdog money line might be +150 or more, meaning a $100 bet profits $150. The much higher payouts on underdogs make up for their lower chances of winning.
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Calculate the Breakeven Percentage
To determine if the underdog presents value, calculate the breakeven percentage:
Breakeven % = (Absolute Value of Favorite Money Line) / (Favorite Money Line + 100)
So if the favorite is -200 and the underdog +175:
Breakeven % = 200 / (200 + 100) = 67%
This means the favorite needs to win 67% to break even. If you estimate their chances below 67%, the +175 underdog bet offers value at sportsbooks like Nordic Bet.
Fade the Public When Betting Dogs
Another way to find value on NHL underdogs is to fade the betting public. “Fading the public” means bet against whatever side the majority of casual bettors are backing.
The public tends to back favorites, especially in high-profile games. When 70-80% of bets are on the favorite, the sportsbook will adjust the underdog’s odds to account for this lopsided action. Often, the adjustment goes too far, and you can take advantage by bet the unpopular underdog at inflated odds.
Use Public Betting Percentages
Sportsbooks and odds sites provide the overall betting percentages on game spreads and money lines. When you see a heavily one-sided split like 80/20 in favor of the favorite, it can present an opportune time to fade the public and back the underdog’s value price.
Target Specific Underdog Situations
While underdogs generally provide value, there are certain situations that are especially profitable when betting NHL longshots:
Home Teams Off a Loss
NHL home teams bounce back following a loss over 60% of the time. Consider betting underdogs the next home game after they suffered an away loss. The public tends to overreact and assume they will lose again, inflating the home dog’s price.
Good Teams in Letdown Spots
Good teams can have a “letdown” in certain situations, such as:
- Coming off a very big win
- Before or after playing a rival
- At the end of long road trips
In these spots, bettors often assume the top team will roll their opponent, overlooking situational factors. This leads to increased value backing the undervalued underdog.
Use Advanced Stats to Your Advantage
The rise of advanced analytics in hockey provides more data to better assess underdogs’ chances of keeping games close or pulling outright upsets. Here are key metrics to analyze:
Corsi/Fenwick Ratings
Corsi/Fenwick measure shot attempt differential. Positive differentials indicate a team generates more scoring chances than they allow. Underdogs with strong shot metrics can offer sneaky value.
PDO Ratings
PDO combines on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage. Extreme PDOs (very high/low) tend to regress toward 100. Teams with low PDOs may see improved fortunes.
Recent Trends
Has the underdog played better in recent games despite subpar overall stats? Improving play not reflected in their money line price presents another opportunity.
Manage Your Bankroll Properly
Underdogs win less frequently by nature, so you need to account for this with proper bet sizing:
Bet Small
Wager 1-5% of your bankroll per bet. Lower variance leads to greater long-term sustainability.
Accept Losses
Underdogs lose more often. Expect to lose over 50% of underdog bets but remain profitable from the larger wins.
Stay Disciplined
Resist chasing losses. Stick to the criteria that makes underdogs +EV bets rather than emotionally betting big on every dog.
Final Tips for Betting NHL Underdogs
Here are a few parting tips for betting on NHL longshots:
- Look for spots where the public perception overstates the favorite’s chances and undervalues factors working in the underdog’s favor
- Be selective and patient for the best underdog opportunities rather than betting every single game
- Use tracking tools to assess stats, odds value, and public percentages over a larger sample to refine your underdog bet strategy
Betting underdogs involves more variance but can also lead to tremendous value. By following sharp money and exploiting public bias with these tips, you can overcome the lower win rates and profit betting on NHL longshots.